By Dr Ranga Kalansooriya
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev tweeted his predictions for 2023 last month. He noted that “all the largest stock markets and financial activity will leave the US and Europe and move to Asia.”
At the outset, such claims may seem overstretched. In fact, however, this was hardly a new prediction. The World Bank and the IMF made it two years ago, essentially stating that Asia would become the world economic powerhouse by 2024.
Four out of the five largest economies will be from Asia by 2024. None of them will be from Europe. China will lead, followed by the US and India. Japan and the new global economic power, Indonesia, will also join the team. In effect, Asia will be the world’s largest economic powerhouse by 2024.
The million dollar question, however, is whether Asia is politically ready to take up this challenge against the backdrop of most of these Asian power houses preparing to face crucial elections within the next 24 months. What is disturbing is not the exact date or month of elections, but the run up period and the build up of election focused maneuvering that will likely be witnessed many months ahead of these polls.
Many countries, including India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Maldives, Cambodia and of course Sri Lanka will face decisive polls within the next 24 months. The outcomes of many of these elections will certainly have not only regional, but also global impacts.
If Asia is to lead, it certainly needs solid visionary political leaders at the forefront. Unfortunately, one common feature of many of these electoral landscapes is the absence of a dynamic leadership for people to make coherent choices when they go to vote.
Many of these countries have no powerful oppositions, no strong youth representation groomed in leadership, and no progressive leaders who can promote meaningful inclusion and social cohesion.
India followed by Indonesia is the most sought-after electoral battleground in the coming years. Being two of the world’s largest democracies, they could have been role models. But their track record in the past few years suggests otherwise.
India is no more the land of the great emperor Ashoka, the peaceful revolutionist Gandhi, or visionary leaders like Ambedkar and Nehru who sought a pluralistic, inclusive, and equal society. The rulers of the soon to be world’s most populous country are now focused on promoting Hindutva ideology through a bipolar “Us versus Them” lens.
Of course, India’s economic indicators look impressive. The Digital India and Start Up India campaigns have readied the nation for many upcoming global challenges. But analysts are questioning its democratic value system, or the absence thereof.
The popularity of the 73-year old Prime Minister Modi was visible in the Hindu dominated states like Gujarat at recent local polls, yet it was challenged in places like Himachal and New Delhi. The upcoming elections in 10 other states this year will bring to the fray voting patterns of heavily diversified Indians, but many experts predict that Modi will win a successful third term at the general elections in May 2024, despite criticisms over inflation, unemployment, and religious polarization. This will certainly send negative signals to the region, as well as to the democratic world of bipolar nationalistic polities driven by religious identity.
Indonesia the biggest Islamic nation in the world will have to make the most difficult choice in its post-Suharto era on Valentine’s Day 2024.
Popular incumbent Joko Widodo (Jokowi) will not constitutionally be eligible to contest. This will likely confuse Indonesians about his successor. Many feel the current Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, who contested against Jokowi during the previous presidential polls, and later crossed over to the government, could be Jokowi’s nominee for presidency. “But that could be the end of both Jokowi and Prabowo as such a decision would violate their promises to the people, and they will not vote for Prabowo,” said an Indonesian diplomat who did not wish to be identified.
Prabowo, being the son-in-law of the former ousted strongman Suharto, still carries the latter’s unpopular legacy, but if he joins Jokowi, that would be a gamechanger, according to some political analysts. On the other hand, if the Jokowi-Prabowo marriage is not acceptable to most Indonesians, what would be the alternative? Hardline Islamists? “Never,” said the anonymous diplomat. “We have to protect secular, pluralistic, and democratic Indonesia.”
By all accounts, the emergence of Indonesia as one of the top five big economies in the world, after 25 years of economic bankruptcy, is a success story Sri Lanka could well learn from.
The electoral story of Bangladesh is also somewhat similar, though placed in a different context. Most political leaders would do their best to annihilate the opposition for their own political survival, but it becomes extremely detrimental to the basic norms of democracy. That is exactly what has happened in Bangladesh.
Bangladesh’s strong lady Sheikh Hasina, who is now serving her third consecutive term, has virtually destroyed her opposition. More than 4000 opposition activists are either behind bars or living in exile today. Both the US and India are counting the days to see a Hasina-free Bangladesh, and social disturbances have emerged in Dhaka and across suburban streets.
In the absence of a strong democratic opposition, Bangladesh is witnessing hardline Islamic elements gaining momentum within the political landscape as the only alternative option. This would certainly have dire regional consequences. The heavy involvement of deep-state actors will be a key feature of the Bangladeshi elections, to be held in January 2024.
Pakistan will face general elections by the end of this year. With former ousted Prime Minister Imran Khan still flexing his muscles against the present regime of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistanis hope that they would attempt to end the years of political turmoil in the nuclear state to find lasting solution to deteriorating economy and also to neverending environmental disasters. The year 2022 was a mix of all these disasters in Pakistan.
Moreover, the upcoming elections will be a classic litmus test for a historic statement by the country’s controversial “establishment” (deep state) to stay out of politics. “This was a welcoming statement for all of us in Pakistan, but we have to wait and see whether they would walk the talk,” was the response by Asma Shirazi, a prominent local journalist.
The outcomes of all these elections will have immense regional and global repercussions, given the economic strength of the region. If Asia does not have proper, inclusive, democratic leadership, it may not be able to harvest the economic gains which many have already predicted.
Thus, we need two components if Asia to thrive in economic as well as political terms: visionary leaders, and literate voters. I firmly think we are missing both.
Dr Ranga Kalansooriya is a media and political analyst in Asia, the former Director General of Information of the Department of Government Information in Sri Lanka, and a former diplomat. He can be reached via rkalansooriya@gmail.com.
Factum is an Asia Pacific-focused think tank on International Relations, Tech Cooperation and Strategic Communications accessible via www.factum.lk.
