By Omar Rajarathnam
Centuries under the rule of a King, a Maoist overthrow, decades under corrupt civilian rule, Nepal’s take over by its people in September 2025 came overnight as its police gunned down over 19 youth. Many international media have portrayed the protest as a social media ban triggered Gen Z uprising, this is untrue. The reality of Nepal’s corrupt elite and their offsprings being criticized via the ‘’Nepo Baby’’ campaign is not an issue of US tech bro-ligarchies deciding how the rest of the world’s information landscapes should be, but one of unchecked irregularities that pushed the country to remain one of the poorest in South Asia. The people have spoken, a bit too violently but if Nepal’s is looking for a post-uprising resumption of normalcy, Sri Lanka could be its only model to emulate.
Returning a country to democracy from the brinks of post-revolution anarchy is no joke. Sri Lanka is the only country that has weathered this storm in record time, holding elections on constitutionally mandated time to return powers from legislature-led interim arrangements to one of electoral outcome. Nepal has already outdone Sri Lanka in this respect, says rights activist and researcher Prihesh Ratnayake. “Firstly, by announcing elections in Early 2026, a year ahead of the constitutional timeline. Secondly, by appointing the interim PM from wider consensus rather than an invalidated government.”
Nepal has already suffered a bit too much in terms of governance infrastructure. Most of its democratic institutions – the Parliament the Supreme Court, the Singha Durbar (the Government Office building in capital Katmandu) and the administrative buildings which act as levers of power, have been set ablaze. Yes, democracy should not be confined to the buildings it’s served from but damaging the sanctity and symbolism of such institutions, especially by the people it was supposed to serve, is not a testament to the credibility it can reclaim in a post-uprising set up. Nepal’s situation in terms of political choices for alternatives was scarce as most protesters rejected the current parliament. Nepali Computer Scientist and Activist Dovan Rai says the situation is precarious because the ones being discredited is not a single party but the whole party system. ”This can delegitimize the parliamentary democratic system and make way for authoritarianism”. This could have dangerous results for Nepali citizens seeking change in ruling structures. A return to the Monarchy or backing an authoritarian may not be the happy ending citizens expect. Politics is not for the fainthearted. It requires strategy, shrewdness, stamina, ability to stomach criticism, negotiations and many more, Technocrats and celebrities can play a role in amplifying what the people of Nepal crave in terms of change, but it is also prudent not to put a technocrat or celebrity in the country’s top seat. Fame and realpolitik may look complimentary, the latter requires a lot more than what meets the eye.
All hope, however, is not lost, because protesters have agreed to allow former Chief Justice of Nepal, Sushila Karki to be appointed as the interim prime minister. A section of youth also endorsed this on social media app Discord which is popular among gamers. The silver lining could be already in the horizon as the first female Nepali PM takes office as she demands an inquiry into the events that led to the reasons for the protest. What could be penultimate for Karki to do is hold elections on time and follow Sri Lanka’s path on power transitions and prove yet again it can take place peacefully.
The National People’s Power government in Sri Lanka is a Neo-Left progressive front. Led by President Anura Kumara Dissanayake and Prime Minister Dr Harini Amarasuriya, despite coming from Communist foundations, it chose political pragmatism retaining the International Monetary Fund (IMF) agreement with Sri Lanka which was architectured by a more pro-capitalist President and seven-time PM Ranil Wickremesinghe. This one move by the incumbent government is proof that post-uprising normalcy requires tectonic shifts from political theory. Uprisings can be unsettling. Despite the unprecedented solidarity people feel while taking part in change, weeks into the movement, confusion can set in on charting a way forward. Youth groups can become fractured owing to the lack of policy making experience. The high energy environment can cement solidarity between the unthinkable fractions, but it can also cement tensions among the most compatible quarters. Despite all these challenges, the uprising achieves something remarkable – sending fear down every bone of corrupt politicians. It happened in Sri Lanka, it happened in Bangladesh, and it will happen in Nepal. If there is one thing the people of Nepal should do right, it is keeping this fear alive alongside their participation on consultative political processes.
The culture of impunity an uprising manages to break is not to be underestimated. Any deviation from this must be met with the vigor of the people. Despite his financial and administrative credentials, Sri Lanka’s President Ranil Wickremesinghe lost at the ballot in 2024 because he pandered to the same corrupt politicians the people wanted to oust. The same holds true for Sri Lanka’s incumbent president and the government, who are acutely aware that their tenure at the top can be cut short by the very people who elected them, should they betray the policies and promises enshrined in their manifestos.
Sri Lanka’s economic woes led to the uprising in 2022 because the Executive at the time Gotabaya Rajapaksa and his questionable Central Bank Governor Ajit Nivard Cabraal could make unilateral decisions on how to handle the country’s foreign currency reserves which stood at over $6bn at the time as they decided to services international sovereign bonds against the advice of economists. The result – Sri Lanka ran short of money to purchase petroleum resources and other essential items which brought the country to a standstill which triggered protests.
Three years on, one of the country’s leading young economists and director of Arutha, a think tank focused on economic research and communication, Umesh Moramudali, says public debt is falling faster than IMF baseline, debt-to-GDP is to fall from 104.6% in 2024 to 96.8% by 2030, with scope to reach 85–87% by 2032. Although he continues to raise concerns over lack of institutional capacity at the new Public Debt Management Office. This was only possible because a pro-capitalist President enrolled Sri Lanka on to an IMF programme, a pro-left President decided to pursue that policy upon taking office and people who stayed patient but keep demanding accountability from the authorities when there were deviations. Nepal can take the same route to reforms.
There is chatter among US based-tech companies that the Nepal uprising was a result of a small state government trying to stand up to tech-hegemony which comes cloaked as free expression bravado. There is no question the people of Nepal were angry at the social media ban but the impunity that tech companies seek from small governments not to impose rules on them, is one that also needs to be addressed in the strictest terms. For any accountability to happen, Nepali institutions must exist. If Nepal chooses not to pursue democracy, that’s on them but the institutions must remain in place and unharmed if the people of Nepal want a chance in accountable governance, at least for the sake of the 70 people who lost their lives since the uprising.
Omar is the Executive Director and Co-Founder of Factum, an Asia and Asia-Pacific focused thinktank on Diplomacy and Tech-plomacy. He is a communications and digital outreach professional specializing in defense and public diplomacy posturing and was formally the Head of Public Diplomacy Outreach of the US Embassy to Sri Lanka and Maldives.
Factum is an Asia-Pacific-focused think tank on International Relations, Tech Cooperation, and Strategic Communications accessible via www.factum.lk.
The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the organizations.
