By Brayan Jayawardhana
Two weeks ago, on March 10, Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sirkorski took to X to respond to Elon Musk’s claim that Ukraine’s “entire front line” would collapse if he turned Starlink off.
Sirkorski, who seemed agitated if not angry, tweeted that Poland was paying for Starlink’s use in Ukraine, and that if it proved to be unreliable, his country would not hesitate to turn to alternatives, questioning “the ethics of threatening the victim of aggression.”
Almost immediately, Musk and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio retorted, with Rubio accusing the Minister of “just making things up” and requesting him to “say thank you because without Starlink Ukraine would have lost this war long ago.”
Musk’s response was blunter. He asked the Minister to “be quiet”, referring to him as a “small man” and stating that Poland pays “a tiny fraction of the cost.” He added that Starlink has no substitute, a claim demonstrably true: the system, as the BBC puts it, has been “key to Ukraine’s army operations” since 2022. Later, Musk stated he had no intention of halting Starlink in the country.
The spat followed weeks of growing tensions between Washington and Europe, with top US officials including President Donald Trump and Vice-President J. D. Vance complaining that Europe had not been grateful enough about US assistance to the region, particularly to Ukraine.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy had to face the brunt of it in the White House when both Vance and Trump – with Secretary of State Rubio watching with barely concealed rage on the side – castigating him for not pursuing a ceasefire with Russia.
In this scheme of things, Musk, who heads the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), has become not just the richest but the most influential man out there. For better or worse, the companies he heads, including X, SpaceX, Tesla, and of course Starlink, have taken center stage, and have become a crucial part of Trump’s disruptive agenda.
As the United States clamps down hard on its allies, slapping tariffs and igniting trade wars with its allies, and as it suspends foreign assistance programs, one thus wonders how Musk’s platforms, which have a presence in nearly every region, will affect the Global South.
If at all, Elon Musk’s spat with Poland’s Foreign Minister and his tweets against other elected officials, including the British Prime Minister, shows that he is not above sparring with leaders of the Western world. Given how popular it has become, Starlink, in particular, may become his big stick and weapon in these confrontations, especially across the Global South.
The Achievements of Starlink
All things considered, Starlink represents a next step in global telecommunications. This was apparent even before Musk’s leap to Trump’s bandwagon last year.
Its growing influence must be set against the backdrop of the transition from 3G to 5G. When 3G was introduced in the early 2000s, it brought mobile broadband to the masses for the first time, enabling a new era of mobile internet browsing, video calling, and email access.
With speeds ranging from 0.2 to 2 Mbps, 3G facilitated data-heavy services that were previously only available through fixed broadband connections. After the late 2000s, 4G networks were introduced with a 10 Mbps to 100 Mbps speed range.
The most recent leap in mobile technology doubtless came with the introduction of 5G in the 2020s. 5G networks offer ultra-low latency, greater bandwidth, and peak download speeds that exceed 1 Gbps, supporting real-time applications such as autonomous vehicles, virtual reality, and remote surgeries. This evolution from 3G to 5G has not only improved mobile communications but also laid the groundwork for advanced satellite internet solutions – such as Starlink.
Starlink was initiated by SpaceX with the purpose of establishing a global network by using Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite technology. Unlike conventional satellite internet, which employs a few large satellites in distant orbits, Starlink’s approach involves deploying thousands of smaller satellites much closer to Earth. In January this year alone, 120 of them fell from space to earth, sparking much worry among scientists and environmentalists.
So far, over 8,000 Starlink satellites have been launched, with plans to significantly expand the constellation in the coming years. It must be noted that Starlink employs Free Space Optics (FSO) instead of Radio Frequency (RF) technology. FSO utilizes laser communication and requires fewer satellite resources. It is easier to integrate into satellite platforms. FSO terminals offer speeds of up to 10 Gbps, and future advancements may increase this to hundreds of Gbps.
Fiber optic technology provides faster internet, often reaching up to 1 Gbps, with low latency. It is ideal for video conferencing and gaming experiences with their symmetrical upload and download speeds. Yet fiber availability can be limited and costly to install in rural areas.
By contrast, Starlink provides wider coverage globally with the added bonus of an easier installation process. On the other hand, while it offers flexibility for mobile based on plug and play concept, its speeds can vary based on its higher latency and the weather.
Starlink in the Global South
Starlink’s outreach has not been limited to the Global North; it has expanded its presence in the Global South. In 2023, Starlink made advancements in Africa, starting with Nigeria. Since then, it has spread to 13 other countries, including Kenya and Mozambique.
While national security concerns have hampered negotiations with countries like Cameroon and South Africa, Starlink is seen as a groundbreaker in a continent where only 40 percent of the population enjoy reliable internet access.
In that sense, what happened in South Africa is, at one level, a foretaste of what one can expect of Musk and his companies in the next few years. Weeks after being appointed to the Department of Government Efficiency, Musk began amplifying claims that Pretoria was penalizing white farmers through “racist” laws. These moves resulted in Washington threatening to cut off aid to the country President Donald Trump inviting white farmers to seek asylum in the US.
Though it is difficult to establish a direct link between the two, commentators have argued that Starlink’s stalled negotiations with the South African government were what encouraged Musk to intervene so openly and blatantly in the country’s domestic politics. This is particularly so since the main reason for the breakdown in talks between Musk and the South African government was Starlink’s refusal to adhere to a South African law which requires foreign-owned telecommunications licensees to sell 30 percent of their equity to historically disadvantaged groups.
In South Asia, Musk had long eyed but was frustrated in his attempts to enter India, the region’s biggest market. Until recently, because of pressure from powerful telecom companies as well as security concerns, including one incident in Manipur, the Modi government seemed unwilling to grant Musk access to the country. That changed two weeks ago when Starlink signed deals with two of India’s biggest telecom companies, Reliance Jio and Bharti Airtel.
It remains to be seen how Starlink will operate in India. If news reports are anything to go by, the Delhi government will impose tough conditions on Musk, in a bid to address security issues and protect local competition. Whether Musk, who has made it clear in every deal he has entered that he always gets his way, will abide by that in the long term is questionable. In any case, Musk has already sued the Indian government for allegedly “censoring” X.
By contrast, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka have been more welcoming of Starlink. In January this year, for instance, Sri Lanka’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority (TRCSL) approved its tariff plans. Bangladesh has emphasized the benefits of Starlink as well. Among other countries, Nepal has proved to be another tough nut to crack: Nepalese law requires a local stake of at least 20 percent, a proviso Musk and Starlink have indicated they do not accord with.
The Geopolitics of Starlink
With the world’s most powerful man getting a hand in shaping US foreign policy, we have yet to see the extent to which Elon Musk will use his leverage to influence US relations with other countries, especially those in the Global South which depend on foreign aid and have suffered a major blowback because of Washington’s gutting of USAID and other programs.
Starlink and SpaceX are the two arches which flank Musk’s global ambitions. Not surprisingly, he has tweeted in support of decommissioning the International Space Station (ISS) and has framed Starlink as an essential service for the Global South – which, at one level, it is.
Whether he will get a blank cheque from Washington to pursue these aims, however, is debatable: as a US political analyst noted in an interview with this writer, “All the things he wants costs money. If he makes [the White House] too unhappy, he may not get what he wants.” Reportedly, Trump has restricted his mandate, and in his recent address to Congress said that it is the heads of government departments who have authority over their respective offices.
On the other hand, however, apart from Trump’s flattering remarks about Musk doing “a great job”, both Vice-President Vance and Secretary of State Rubio have been quick to defend Musk on his platform, the spat with the Polish Foreign Minister being the most recent example. At one level, the level to which Musk continues to be defended by the top officials casts doubts over the possibility of Trump cutting his powers – or restricting them at all, as recent reports indicate.
For the Global South, none of this really matters. The question for them is whether Starlink will do what it promises – expand internet access – or become a Damocles’ sword, forcing countries to play it nice with Musk even as they pay higher tariffs to obtain its services.
As Musk’s remarks about Ukraine show, however, he is not ready to completely withdraw access to Starlink from any of the countries it is operating in today. There may be a money and profit factor involved here: while he uses Starlink as a big stick in his engagements with these countries, he may not want to risk a complete pullout just yet. It is therefore likely he will dally between tweeting about the importance of Starlink in conflict zones like Ukraine and rural areas while reminding us that he has the power – as all billionaires before him, even fictional, claim they have – of pulling the plug on the world. This is an uneasy situation, but it is one that will continue.
With inputs from Uditha Devapriya.
Brayan Jayawardhana is a Computer Science undergraduate at the University of Westminster with a strong interest in software development, UI/UX design, innovation, digital transformation, and other similar topics. Outside of academics, he explores advancements in the tech industry and their impact on digital transformation, and engages in continuous learning and research. Brayan can be reached at wmbk.jayawardana1@gmail.com.
Factum is an Asia-Pacific focused think tank on International Relations, Tech Cooperation, Strategic Communications, and Climate Outreach accessible via www.factum.lk.
The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the organization’s.
