“I am convinced that the true sovereignty of Ukraine is possible precisely in partnership with Russia. Our spiritual, human, civilizational ties have been formed for centuries, go back to the same sources, tempered by common trials, achievements and victories. Our kinship is passed down from generation to generation. It is in the hearts, in the memory of people living in modern Russia and Ukraine, in blood ties that unite millions of our families. Together we have always been and will be many times stronger and more successful. After all, we are one people.” – On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians – Vladmir Putin
“Already in 1990 I wrote that Russia could desire the union of only the three Slavic republics [Russia, Ukraine, Belarus] and Kazakhstan, while all the other republics should be let go. It would be desirable if [a resulting Russian Union] could be formed into a unitary state, not into a fragile, artificial confederation with a huge supra-national bureaucracy.” – Alexander Solzhenitsyn.
By Rathindra Kuruwita
A few weeks ago, I pitched Factum for an article titled ‘Why Russia must invade Ukraine now.’ I procrastinated, but Putin didn’t.
I guess what is now left to do is list out why Russia did this. Then I will talk about the motive to launch an attack at this specific motion.
Twin catastrophes of the 20th century and Putinism
For most Russians, regardless of their political affiliation, the 20th century ushered in two great catastrophes. One was the destruction of the Russian Empire, and the other was the disintegration of the Soviet Union and the subsequent decade of humiliation.
The twin events led to the breakup of the “Russian World,” dividing up tens of millions of Russian people and lands that were controlled by the Tsar or the Communist Party across several countries. As the above quotes of Solzhenitsyn and Putin shows rebuilding of the Russian World has been a long cherished idea of the Russians. Fortunately for them, the material and psychological conditions for the regathering of Russian land are ready.
Throughout this article, I am going to let Putin, the architect of renewed Russian vigor, himself explain the reasons for taking military action.
Putinism in 2022, is similar to historic demands by Russian nationalists, and even communists, that Russia needs to retain Ukraine, Belarus and parts of Kazakhstan, as Russians are in fact the state building people of these nations. Therefore, recent attempts by Ukraine and their Western backers to build the country as an ‘Anti-Russian’ state could not have been tolerated by Putin and most of the political establishment of Russia, well maybe, except for Navalny. But he is in exile and his party is banned.
In his On the historical unity of Russians and Ukrainians, written in July 2021, Putin insisted that Ukraine was an inseparable part of the all-Russian nation, drew a line between how Ukraine became a de facto colony of Germany after Russia’s exit from World War I and how this influences its relation to the West today. He then repeated his long-standing view that the Bolsheviks laid a time bomb by including the right of secession in the 1924 USSR Constitution, and noted the coercive nature of “Ukrainization” as an ideological project aimed against “so-called” Great Russian chauvinism. The article ends with an affirmation that Russians and Ukrainians are one people and that Ukraine’s “path of forced assimilation” towards Russians within Ukraine is “comparable in its consequences to the use of WMDs against us.”
Wait, what? WMDs?
Don’t worry. Putin explains.
“But the fact is that the situation in Ukraine today is completely different because it involves a forced change of identity. And the most despicable thing is that the Russians in Ukraine are being forced not only to deny their roots, generations of their ancestors but also to believe that Russia is their enemy. It would not be an exaggeration to say that the path of forced assimilation, the formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state, aggressive towards Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass destruction against us. As a result of such a harsh and artificial division of Russians and Ukrainians, the Russian people in all may decrease by hundreds of thousands or even millions.”
So, there you have it. Answer to all your questions about why Russia did this. “It would not be an exaggeration to say that the path of forced assimilation, the formation of an ethnically pure Ukrainian state, aggressive towards Russia, is comparable in its consequences to the use of weapons of mass destruction against us.”
Well, I know that G.W. Bush and the Americans made any reference to WMDs, meet with cynicism. But let’s assume, that there is credible information that there are actual WMDs, aimed at harming a country and its people. Isn’t it the job of any responsible Commander-in-Chief to use all his might to tackle such an existential threat to his nation? Isn’t that the argument made against former President Maithripala Sirisena and his cabinet about failing to prevent the Easter Sunday Attacks?
Demographics is power
‘Whoever does not miss the Soviet Union has no heart’ – Putin
Putin understands the importance of demographics and on many occasions, he had mourned the end of both the Russian Empire and the end of the USSR. Most recently, speaking to students of the ‘Ocean’ Russian Children’s Center in Vladivostok on 01 September 2021, Putin stated that if not for the “two disintegrations of the country in the 20th century” Russia would have a population of 500 million.
“And if these tragedies did not take place, there would be about 500 million people. Is there a difference?” Putin repeated. The President went on to state that this situation is, “the total power of the state, which is constantly surging in geometric progression. An increasingly powerful basis for development, existence, prosperity is being created. We need to look at what lies behind these tragic events, so as to prevent such issues in the future,” Putin said.
In recent days, one could not escape social media posts about the size of Ukraine, about its wheat fields and its ‘industry’ (yeah, sure). But, I guess, the real value of Ukraine for Putin is that it has about 35-40 million (depending on who you ask) people with an average IQ of 95. And these people are highly compatible with Russians. Yes, Russia has a population of about 145 million people, and can generate economies of scale to maintain political sovereignty and to run a largely self-contained technological civilization, but this would be much easier in a restored “Russian World” that unites Russians, Belorussians, and Ukrainians.
As you had noted the idea of regathering Russian lands is not a novel idea and in the last 15 years, there had been a steady integration of the Russian World. I believe that it would have been better for everyone involved if the unity of the Russian World could have been restored by bloodless bureaucratic integration vehicles or through federalization under Minsk II. But Euromaidan put an end to it and here we are.
Why would Russia take action now?
The Russian takeover of Ukraine is probably one of the most documented wars ever. Over the past couple of months, there was a stream of amateur footage, especially on TikTok, of a large influx of Russian troops and hardware to military bases close to Ukraine, already augmented by the last war scare in spring 2021. By the first week of February, Russian troops were moving towards staging areas near the Ukrainian border. Attack helicopters too moved in, and this is often considered to be the final preparatory stages for large-scale military operations.
At this point, despite what skeptics thought, i.e. those who tend to believe Putin’s Russia is a cynical kleptocracy and a paper tiger and Russophiles who, for good reasons, do not buy media fabrications about Russia, it was obvious that Russia had to invade. Garrisoning large numbers of troops is costly and one can only separate troops from their training facilities for so long, before morale and combat effectiveness begin to dissipate. The mud season (rasputitsa) is on the cards and , springtime foliage which makes it easier for defenders to camouflage, and increasing inflows of Western weaponry, creates significant and purely military incentives for getting it over with sooner rather than later.
The NATO
Despite frequent assurances to the contrary, everyone knows that NATO is not a defensive organization. NATO is the military force of US hegemony, this hegemony has been expanding rapidly to Russia’s borders in the last 30 years.
Someone reading this article would ask, ‘Rathindra, don’t individual nations have the right to enter into alliances as they see fit? Of course, this is true theoretically, but countries have neighbors and these neighboring nations have their own national security concerns and interests. And some of these neighbors are big and powerful, and as those living near India, we should know this.
Russia has been invaded by western powers several times in the modern era, starting with Napoleon and ending with Hitler. While these invaders had been pushed back, the country suffered greatly, and thus Russia has sought buffers to its west. Since the end of the Cold War, NATO has been expanding towards Russia, in recent times one color revolution after another, and missile systems pointed at Russia have been set up in Romania and Poland.
If you remember the importance of Ukraine, it should not come a surprise that Russia finally put its foot down. In 2022 Russia forwarded demands to NATO to disavow further expansion of the alliance, and demanded that it withdraw foreign military forces from the ex-Warsaw Pact states. And these demands were rejected.
By making these demands, getting rejected and being counter demanded of withdraw from Crimea and the Donbass, Russia effectively committed itself to military operations in Ukraine. If Russia would have backed off at this point, it would have been the end of Russian credibility, as I had argued. Western politicians will, rightly, believe that any future Russian buildups will amount to nothing, and that increasing weapons supplies to Ukraine works. Atlantic Council who insist that Russians “only understand the language of strength” will be validated, and this would accelerate NATO integration.
The China factor
Perhaps, what stayed Russia’s hand in reintegrating Ukraine in 2014 was that there was no guarantee of China having its back. But now things have changed. Chimerica, the Chinese-American economic relationship, once the central pillar of the world economy, is now in rapid disintegration. Chinese power and assertiveness are growing, and thus in stark contrast to studied neutrality in 2014, China is now outspoken in its support for Russia’s security demands of NATO.
Predictions
The occupation of most or all of Ukraine, and the subsequent annexation of probably most or all of historical Novorossiya. Probably will form a corridor up to the Soviet borders before World War II. Perhaps not Volhynia, and probably not Galicia.
Who are the winners?
Russia – No one is going to question is credibility and red lines, at least for a while. Knows China has its back ensuring that Russian imports have a market.
China – Russia and probably Iran now depends on China succeeding. And these are the only nations that matter in a showdown with the west
The US State Department – It has achieved its main objective of seeing Nordstream 2 put on ice.
American LNG producers – Probably ordering colossal amounts of champagne envisioning tons of cash to be made by overcharging Europeans desperate for gas.
The US Military Industrial Complex – New orders for the NATO armies in Europe.
(The Writer is an independent researcher and the News Editor of The Island newspaper, Sri Lanka. Rathindra is a fellow of the Daniel K Inouye Asia Pacific Center for Security Studies.
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