By Chamara Sumanapala
The media has given credence to U.S. government speculation that Russia is looking to violate Ukraine’s sovereign borders. Western sanctions will be a factor in deterring such action and Russia has several advantages in turning the heat up on the issue for various interests. One thing almost certain, it is unlikely that Russia will invade Ukraine. Then why has such a fuss built up over the past weeks?Russia wants an assurance that Ukraine and other former Soviet republics will not join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) – a West-dominated intergovernmental military pact with European, American and Eurasian partners. Russia has always had been concerns over its western border which was the epicenter of the greatest invasions Russia faced in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries. NATO, which was formed during the cold war era to counter the Soviet Union and counterpart the Warsaw Pact, had little reason to exist when the Soviet Union fell but it stayed on and expanded towards to cover the Eastern borders as well.
A special case
Ukraine is a special case. The eastern part of Ukraine is closer to Russia while western Ukraine is closer to neighbors such as Poland which have lately become closer to the West. This division created a competition between the pro-Russian and pro-Western camps following the end of the Soviet Union. In 2013, this exploded when Ukraine was considering a partnership treaty with the EU. On alleged Russian, Ukraine made a U-turn and signed a deal with Russia instead which led to anti-government protests and the ouster of the pro-Russian president Viktor Yanukovich. This led to the Crimea crisis where Russia annexed part of Ukraine via a referendum that the Western world contested, but to no avail.
Most analysts especially those from the West oversaw that the ethnic Russian community in Crimea felt threatened by the fall of Yanukovich because the protest movement included Ukrainian ultra-nationalists. Western countries and Ukraine do not recognize the annexation and have held that it violates the Ukrainian constitution.
This was followed by uprisings in Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. They still control parts of these two regions. It is claimed that the rebels are backed by Russia.
In essence, Ukrainian nationalists claim that Russia had been at war with them for eight years but Russia has kept its pressure on the region because it is not willing to cave in to NATO. If Ukraine were to join NATO, the Western powers can come closer to knocking on Russia’s door which the Kremlin wants to avoid.
Some analysts argue that Russia President Vladimir Putin is exerts pressure on Ukraine when sentiments become unfavorable to him at home. However, Russia’s security concerns are real, especially concerning NATO and are held in the spirit of preventing a repetition of events that led to the fall of the Soviet Union.
What does the West want?
The west wants to appear tough but it also wants Russia on its side for various other interests including energy. Even though President Biden has warned about the sanctions they will apply if Russia invades Ukraine, Russia knows such action won’t cripple the country. Despite similar sanctions in 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, Russia’s foreign reserves increased. The Western sanctions hit Russia’s economy hard, the situation is not dire.
European leaders are not prepared to give up on the Nord Stream 2 pipeline because of Ukraine. The pipeline, laid under the Baltic Sea, bypasses Ukraine. Therefore, when it is operational, Ukraine will have less control over gas supplies from Russia to Europe. This could lessen its importance in the eyes of Europe. Meanwhile, Russia is imperative for Europe’s energy security. There have been talks of applying sanctions so that Russia would not be able to use US Dollars in international transactions. The threats have been made because Europe needs Russia, a fact Putin knows too well and plays into cleverly.
United Kingdom was extremely eager to support Ukraine. It has sent military advisers and also weapons in recent days. This seems to be their way of asserting themselves in the post-Brexit international arena.
In June 2021, U.S. President Biden met President Putin in Geneva, which was indicative of the United States warming up to Russia. Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky was extremely concerned about this development but the U.S. in the face its Afghanistan withdrawal and the need to appear as a stronger defender of its allies in the aftermath. So it played the balancing act between Russia and Ukraine. Putin was aware of this U.S. vulnerability and that US will employ a mixture of threats and dialogue which Russia plays along with. A weaker U.S. after Afghanistan and the European trajectory towards nationalistic government as well as other political forces in play, Russia thinks it can appear make better bargains in the long run. For the time being it has nothing to lose.
Enter China
In many ways, the whole Ukraine crisis is linked to Chinese ascendancy even though no one would come out and claim it to be. The US was concerned by the China-Russia nexus. It does not need Russia completely in China’s camp. This is one major reason why the Biden administration warmed up to Russia. This is the same administration, more or less, which wholeheartedly backed the Ukrainian protests in 2013-14. Seven years later, they chose to warm up to the exact opposite camp after coming to power. This was actually somewhat surprising given their past. But, it was nothing but realpolitik on the US side.
Afghanistan changed it because Biden is concerned about Taiwan. China was quick to warn Taiwan when Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, pointing out that the U.S. was incapable of defending its allies. This message got through to the U.S. administration as intended. The Biden administration now had to appear that it is actually willing to better defend its allies. In doing so, it cannot let Russia fall completely to the Chinese camp. Knowing this, Putin is deftly engaging in realpolitik. While several countries in the west have announced a diplomatic boycott of the 2022 Winter Olympics, Putin has announced he will visit China for its inauguration. Putin has been in discussion with President Xi Jinping even during the Ukraine crisis. These are messages which are intended for the White House as well.
Given all this, does Russia need to invade Ukraine? Will a shrewd political player like Vladimir Putin make such a reckless move? It is highly unlikely. The world cannot afford that, it is unnecessary.
(The Writer is a journalist, writer, and presenter and has a Bachelor of Science from the University of Colombo. His research interest are history and international relations.)
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