By Lakmali Bhagya Manamperi
The recent visit to India by Sri Lankan parliamentarian Anura Kumara Dissanayake, of the National People’s Power (NPP) party, made headlines in media. It spread suspicions that India will invite the heads of the other parties contesting in Sri Lanka’s presidential elections later this year.
However, based on its initial invitation to the NPP, we may infer that the foreign actors are correctly sizing up the state of Sri Lankan politics now.
With its victory over populism and ascent to prominence as a formidable third party, the NPP has decisively broken with Sri Lanka’s traditional two-party system. With an eye toward the future, India took the lead to mark its ties with NPP ahead its main rival, China.
Why India?
The significance of India’s desire to form a tight relationship with a socialist party lies in its potential to serve as a covert tactic against China’s dominating rhetoric in the region. India reportedly asked the team, how the NPP’s plan would safeguard their interests in terms of regional and state national security.
Every state would like to keep its “sphere of influence,” within the region. There have been times when Sri Lanka misunderstood its significance and as a result, suffered consequences. One example may be President Jayawardena’s solid alliance with the West in 1980s.
Although there have been periods of geopolitical friction in India’s ties, the country’s foreign policy has long been predicated on the neighborhood first approach. A few Sri Lankan presidents have also promised that their nation will not cooperate with another state to subjugate India because doing so would be a self-defeating act.
India has consistently expressed sincere concern for Sri Lanka’s internal problems. Apart from broader themes like economic development and cultural connectivity, more specific isolated incidents relating to the Tamil community in Sri Lanka has always drawn their attention. Issues regarding the Plantation workers and Sri Lankan ethnic crisis were the first among them.
It is observed that India’s discourse over the “Tamil Cause” has recently been more subdued. While there is always a desire for a 13 plus, the argument has lost its weight in the present context. As Anura Kumara Dissanayake states it has not been a topic of discussion even during the NPP visit. However, it is never to underestimate how Sri Lankan “ethnic conflict” highly interlinked with India’s Tamil Nadu factor has left lasting impressions on the two countries bilateral relations.
The Tamil Nadu government’s inherent interest over the Sri Lankan ethnic issue and its aftermath has deep-rooted causes. They believe that it is their utmost duty to voice the concerns of the Sri Lankan Tamils who are direct descendants of the South Indian Dravidians and would retain close cultural, religious and linguistic affinities.
Tamil Nadu’s well-founded issues were undeniable both before and to some extent, during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first term, which began in 2014. The Prime Minister in his second tenure in 2019, regained the one-party dominance (BJP control) defeating the long-standing coalition system in India.
It was through coalition governments that regional parties acquired an influential position over central government’s geopolitical relations and policy formulations. Thereby, within a large federal state, India’s relations with neighboring countries have had immediate fallout on contiguous Indian states.
Domestic Politics and Regional Integration: The Interconnected Games
“Double edge diplomacy”, where one negotiation influences or determines the process and outcome for another negotiation, is the key phenomena in collation government systems. India long struggled within this traditional system, with the central government acting as the primary negotiator and reconciling both the state and federal governments’ interests in two separate game boards.
The negotiator has a strategic quandary in trying to appease both internal and external demands since actions taken at one level impact the outcome at the other; as a result, the decisions made regarding policy are shaped by opportunities and constraints at both levels.
Therefore, prior to Modi’s administration, we frequently witnessed the central government in India deciding on foreign policy over the protest and the influence of domestic lobbies. The tolerance towards outside-in and inside-out dynamics needs to be emphasized as long as the county remains interdependent but sovereign. Thus, the triangular relationship kept Tamil Nadu factor intact with India’s foreign relations with Sri Lanka.
India’ Future Prospects
The Tamil Nadu factor has ceased to influence the decisions made by the Indian central government regarding its foreign policy during the recent past. Within one party dominant system, the triangular relationship has come to an end. The most recent elections in India for several state legislative assemblies BJP had a clear won in states having a majority of Hindus and hence demonstrated the one-party monopoly that the BJP maintains across India.
Prime Minister Modi’s Hindutva holds sway over the Indian states where the Hindu majority still exists. The sense of “otherness” attached to non-Hindu religious groups have been pushed to the periphery and rendered impoverished. Thereby, New Delhi takes greater duties in accordance with India’s status as a developing power and making foreign policy decisions in a highly centralized democracy with poor regional parties.
The outcome of the recent elections in India for several state assemblies portends the results of this year’s general elections where a majoritarian government controlled by one party is likely to triumph. However, the Tamil Nadu factor will unavoidably have a bigger resonance in the international ties between Sri Lanka and India if it topples otherwise.
To maximize the benefits of their relationship, Sri Lankans must be extremely aware of changes in India’s domestic politics.
Lakmali Bhagya Manamperi is a lecturer of law at the Law School of the Asia Pacific Institute of Information Technology or APIIT in Sri Lanka. She can be reached at lakmali.manamperi3@gmail.com.
Factum is an Asia Pacific-focused think tank on International Relations, Tech Cooperation, and Strategic Communications accessible via www.factum.lk.
The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the organization’s.
