By Dr Ranga Kalansooriya
The D-Day announcement by the Acting-President of Myanmar’s underground National Unity Government (NUG) Duwa Lashi La today, September 7 officially declared a protracted civil war in the Southeast Asian nation. The development is expected to take the shape of a nation-wide hide-and-seek guerilla warfare over the coming years.
The head of the underground civilian movement, delivering a speech on social media imposed a State of Emergency across Myanmar and invited civilians to take up arms against State Administrative Council (SAC) or the military junta regime that grabbed power through a constitutional coup on February 1, this year.
The country is already home to the oldest civil war in Asia, but the fighting has been confined to the border of ethnic regions for the past seven decades. This announcement causes a paradigm shift in the existing armed conflict extending guerilla warfare covering the entire nation.
The announcement was expected a couple of months ago, but was delayed due to the differences of opinions between NUG and the Peopled Defence Force (PDF) – the military wing of NUG. The PDF which has mobilized nearly a half the country’s ethnic armed organizations (EAO) was reportedly not convinced launching an all-out guerrilla war without sufficient combat power. With a budget of over $20million, PDF had been attempting to secure necessary armory through several suppliers in East Europe but to no avail. Some PDF sources said that a Chinese supplier managed to change this status quo by supplying a significant amount of weapons to the PDF last month.
Nevertheless, the PDF was apprehensive of an all-out war against the military as most EOAs were not unified under one command. Long rooted differences among the EAOs run deep and complications in mobilizing them under a common banner within months appeared almost impossible. The PDF leadership had however been hopeful and needed more time to bring the various groups together.
For the NUG, the challenges were more political than anything else. They have wanted to draw the attention of the UN General Assembly when they meet next week in New York as much of the attention has now diverted to the other end of South Asia, Afghanistan. Thus, heavy civil unrest and incidents of political violence need to be staged within the next few days in order to divert international attention from Kabul to Yangon.
The Myanmar envoy to UN in New York is one appointed by the ousted leader Aung Saan Suu Kyi. The efforts by the junta to expel Kyaw Moe Tun from the position have been futile because the UN has refused to accept the replacement by the military government that is yet to be endorsed by a majority of the international community. Kyaw Moe Tun needs to be heard when global leaders meet next week, that is if he will be allowed to speak for Myanmar. Kyaw Moe Tun would certainly represent the NUG, not the junta, and this could be an official recognition of NUG against the military junta by the international community, if he is allowed to sit in the well of the UN General Assembly. How China and Russia will respond remains to be seen. The two powers of the UN Security Council have openly collaborated with the junta regime through official channels.
In case if New York allows Kyaw Moe Tun to represent Myanmar, that would put pressure on the regional body ASEAN which has already begun entertaining the military regime by accepting the junta leader at its summit meetings. Junta leader Senior General Ming Aung Hlaing is probably ironing his suits to be welcomed as the country’s self-designated Prime Minister when ASEAN leaders meet in Brunei in few weeks.
The NUG leaders had long wanted to strategically lobby global and regional powers in the coming weeks to back them. Its military wing was not fully geared to launch a countrywide guerilla battle against a well-equipped military which is heavily backed by China and Russia.
Today’s announcement by NUG leader of Myanmar has similarities with Sri Lanka’s armed insurrection in the late 80’s. The NUG has warned it will eliminate any military associates in the country, ordered all civil administrators to resign immediately; requested civilians to remain in-doors, invited the public to join the struggle and urged the international community to understand their cause. Interestingly, NUG’s Ministry of Defence also released guidelines to PDFs, urging them to conduct themselves in line with international laws and refrain from committing war crimes.
Asia doesn’t appear to catch a break from tension. From Myanmar to Afghanistan and now again to Myanmar, the issues have outdone one another in gravity and scale. What would be a space to watch is how the international community is going to divide its attention between Kabul and Yangon and beyond these capitals.
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