By Aavin Abeydeera
On June 1, the world’s largest democratic exercise came to a close. India’s general elections ran for seven weeks through six weeks from the April 19 to June 1, with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led NDA coalition once more coming on top.
However, this time around, Prime Minister Modi’s government will not be the juggernaut it once was. It faces new obstacles, both political and social, in his way.
The Main Parties in the Running
The politics of India became increasingly bipolar in the run-up to the 2024 Indian general elections with two major alliances emerging: the incumbent NDA (National Democratic Alliance) and the opposition INDIA (Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance).
Of these alliances, the BJP leads the NDA, while on the other side of the aisle, the INC leads the INDIA coalition.
In the run-up to the elections, Modi was adamant that his campaign would secure a 400-seat majority for his tentpole coalition. However, as the polls have shown, that is no longer the case, with his own BJP securing just around 292 seats in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s bicameral legislature.
While the numbers show that this new government will still very much be led by Modi’s BJP-led coalition, it will not be as easy as it was for him to enact legislative reform with the same carte blanche and freedom as he did in years prior.
The INDIA alliance has gained in polling numbers, specifically 234 seats, with the INC and the Samajwadi Party boosting its seats from previous election years.
The Campaign and its Verdict
This has been by no means an easy campaign for either coalition. The election this time around has been not only an exercise in electing India’s legislature, but also a referendum of Modi’s rule over the past decade.
The BJP’s election campaign’s focal point has of course, been PM Modi, and this has not necessarily worked in the BJP’s favor. His election campaign consisted mainly of Islamophobic and Hindutva rhetoric, accusing the INC of attempting to lead India away from its Hindu-centric axis of power.
This rhetoric is not just talk either. Modi’s government has repeatedly been criticized, and heavily so, for using the country’s Muslim minority as a scapegoat in a bid to garner support of the significant right-leaning Hindu voter base of the country.
This hardline stance of Hindu-first politics has also lent itself to the tacit approval of hate crimes against minorities in India. That has in the past worked for the BJP, such as in 2019, when it broached the 300-seat mark without any need of assistance from its allied parties.
This is no longer the case, as increasing numbers of young voters, especially under the age of 35, have been disillusioned by the BJP’s hardliner antics, such as the construction (and consecration) of a controversial Hindu temple by the BJP on lands which formerly housed a mosque.
Ironically, the BJP lost its seat in Ayodhya, the constituency in which the Ram Mandhir fiasco happened in the first place.
It is not only the disillusionment with Hindutva rhetoric that has pushed young voters away from the BJP ballot, but also the emerging unemployment crisis in India. According to one poll from the World Bank, India’s unemployment stood at 23.2%, with a significant percentage of those unemployed being youth. The INC has attempted to capitalize on this flashpoint issue, to varying degrees of success.
In keeping with finding ground amidst the BJP government’s blunders, the INDIA coalition has been making steady inroads into throwing wrenches into the BJP-led Lok Sabha machine. With 99 seats won by the INC alone, the BJP will run into considerable trouble with passing their more controversial laws, most of which serve to strengthen Modi’s autocratic regime.
However, the BJP’s slight retreat has not been uniform across all regions of India. In Uttar Pradesh, the most populous state in the country, the Samajwadi Party of the INDIA alliance took 37 seats, while the BJP secured only 33, nearly half the 62 it obtained in 2019.
Such has been the case in bellwether states such as Maharashtra and West Bengal as well, with the INDIA coalition far outpacing the NDA. However, long-standing bastions of left-leaning secularism such as Kerala have been successfully infiltrated by the NDA, in large part thanks to its use of Islamophobic sentiment amongst Kerala’s sizable Christian minority.
What the future holds for India & the BJP
Nevertheless, for all its incendiary strategies, the BJP does come off the back of certainly the most successful period of rule in India’s history. Its economy and power projection has skyrocketed, and India’s domestic economy has boomed thanks to Modi’s aggressive push towards commerce and education-friendly policies at all levels.
In the meantime, Modi’s hegemonic rule over India has overseen India’s transition from a regional powerhouse to a rising global power on its own terms. On the home front, India’s poor has benefitted from robust overhauls in welfare and infrastructure development programs, boosting India’s trajectory towards prosperity for all its citizenry. To be sure, the BJP’s talk has not been without walk.
Conclusion
All said, this election has been interesting to say the least. While it will mean business as usual for Modi and his government, it will come as a shock that India’s secular spirit has decided to fire back against the increasingly powerful Hindutva movement in the voting booths, and the world at large will have to take notice.
Modi’s rule is no longer set in stone, and those who oppose his anti-constitutional, anti-secular, aggressive vision of India are no longer silent.
What this means for South Asia, no one knows for certain. But for Modi, as well as India, the paradigm has begun to shift, and Hindutva rule, like all authoritarian-populist regimes, seem to be coming to an end. Whether that day will arise sooner or later for the world’s largest democracy is anyone’s guess.
Aavin Abeydeera is an undergraduate at the Faculty of Law of the University of Colombo. A graduate of the BCIS, his interests range from geopolitics, economics, and foreign policy to culture and sports. He can be reached at aavinabeydeera@gmail.com.
Factum is an Asia-Pacific focused think tank on International Relations, Tech Cooperation, Strategic Communications, and Climate Outreach accessible via www.factum.lk.
The views expressed here are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the organization’s.
