By Dr Ranga Kalansooriya
Aerial bombings, burning civilian villages and mass killings have now become a common feature in Junta-led Myanmar, mainly in the areas what pro-democratic forces call as ‘Liberated Areas.’ Air strikes by Myanmar military have intensified for the past few weeks near the Myanmar-Thailand border which according to some media reports have now begun impacting areas in the latter. How did Myanmar get here and what country can facilitate change?
The country records at least 50 daily deaths according to independent monitors, but international media is yet to shed a light on the ongoing catastrophes taking place in Myanmar. Fighting between pro-democratic Peoples’ Democratic Force (PDF) militant groups and junta forces have escalated since mid-August and PDF has gained control of 40 percent of the country.
“We have seen a clear upsurge of airstrikes by the military in liberated areas mainly with the newly purchased fleet of fighter jets from Russia that reached Myanmar a couple of weeks ago,” said a political analyst in Yangon who did not want to be identified. This is said to be a part of the one-billion dollar military deal that Myanmar signed with Russia just after the coup in February 2021, he believes. Russia, a silent supporter of the Myanmar coup rushed to honor the junta leader Senior General Ming Aung Hlaing with an honorary doctorate a few weeks after he jailed the democratically elected leader Aung Saan Suu Kyi and seized power.
No matter what role Russia plays in the conflict, emerging Southeast Asian economic giant, China still remains the pivotal game changer, a fact that junta leaders are yet to understand. In early September, Chinese special envoy for Asian Affairs Sun Guoxiang concluded an unannounced visit to Myanmar that included discussions with the junta leaders but the outcome of the visit was not satisfactory to the Chinese delegation, diplomatic sources believe. Requests by China to junta leaders to seek a negotiated settlement with National Unity Government (NUG) that leads the PDF military movement was not well-received by the junta leaders, unconfirmed reports say. The most interesting part of this high-level diplomatic mission was the message of Communist dominated Beijing’s support to Myanmar in its efforts to restore social stability and resume ‘democratic transformation’ at an early date. Nevertheless, Sun Guoxiang cut his visit short due to some disappointments during negotiations, some media reports added.
Soon after the disappointed high level Chinese diplomatic delegation left Myanmar, the junta dispatched a senior level delegation to Moscow, probably in a bid to secure military and political ties with its strong ally. “But the junta should understand the fact that Russia is too far from Myanmar compared to its immediate giant neighbor that shares more than 2100kms of the country’s international border,” said a diplomat in Yangon. Another development that Myanmar junta has not taken a serious note of is the improving Sino-Russia relations against the US led West. In this context, Russia will not act against the decisions of China mainly on the matters relating to the neighbor of its emerging political ally.
If China becomes upset with the junta, that could pave the way for their end. China has the capacity to infiltrate the country, not only through military means, but mainly through commercial and ‘other means’ as well. For example, Myanmar has special administrative regions and zones such as the Wa Division located in the Chinese-Myanmar border where China has immense commercial and military interests. Wa has Chinese weapons manufacturing facilities as well and is one of the most heavily armed areas of Myanmar. “China does not need sanctions from Myanmar to do whatever they want to in the Wa Division,” political analyst said.
Against this backdrop, US is now making efforts to bring a new piece of legislature called the Burma Act to lay down its responses to Myanmar in a more pragmatic manner. Although the term ‘Burma’ refers to the old colonial denomination of Myanmar, the US move will economically pressurize the military regime, politically isolate junta leaders and regionally mobilize forces against the junta rule while officially supporting pro-democratic forces and independent media of Myanmar.
“It’s a welcoming move but still it is China that matters,” said the analyst.
But what about India, that shares more than 1600 kilo meters with Myanmar? Some argue its position is dubious.
As a contender to China and a role model of democracy in the region (if not in the world), India should play a more dynamic and proactive role in denouncing the junta and promoting democratic values in Myanmar. The reality appears otherwise. India was a prominent representative at the Myanmar Military Day in March, a few weeks after the coup, a silent signal of recognition of the military regime. India is yet to take a bold step against the undemocratic rule in its next door.
One of the main reasons for this double standard is the long standing secret ties between the Indian and the Myanmar military that has been extremely helpful in tackling several Indian insurgency groups operating across Indian-Myanmar border. A recent report by the Singapore-based Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS) warned India that New Delhi should be prepared to accommodate refugees as the situation worsens in Myanmar, particularly the refugees or defectors from the borderlands who have close cultural, ethnic and religious ties with their counterparts in India.
In any case, delays in responding to a mass scale conflict may result in a significant humanitarian crisis that includes loss of innocent lives. Reports on mass scale massacres by the junta including burning persons alive have made the rounds including an incident on Christmas Eve in a ‘liberated area’ in Kayah state, where eye witnesses have counted at least 38 charred bodies while dozens have been reported missing including women and children. Among the dead were two staffers of the international NGO Save the Children. Strangely, crucial stories such as this are not being reported in mainstream or international media for reasons unknown. This is going to prolong the suffering of the people of Myanmar.
(The writer is an analyst of media in Asia, former Director General of Information of the Department of Government Information in Sri Lanka and a former diplomat. He can be reached via rkalansooriya@gmail.com)
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